Even with last year’s MVP not feeling or playing like he did last year, the Nationals have plenty of other reasons to think they could be ready for a deep run in October.

Can the Nationals to be trusted in October? On paper, they are the team with the best shot at derailing the freight train that is the Cubs, provided both clubs survive the National League Division Series. Their steady play has been admirable: Washington has held first place in the NL East for all but four days this season, all of them before May 13.

But the Nationals have concerns as they close in on a third division title in five years. They don’t have a healthy Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper. Their only lefthanded starter, Gio Gonzalez—who looms as their most important pitcher in a Division Series matchup against the lefty-averse Dodgers—remains an enigma. Their closer, Mark Melancon—who has received a heavy workload since Washington acquired him from Pittsburgh on July 30 (he pitched in 23 of his first 40 games with the team)—has been asked to protect one postseason lead in his career, which he blew.

Remember, we’re talking about an organization that has won one playoff series in its 48 years (as the Montreal Expos in the 1981 NLDS) and infamously blew ninth-inning leads en route to first-round ousters in 2012 and ’14. We’re not talking about Billy Goat curses yet, but this franchise is working on its own half-century tradition of bad karma.

Had Washington entered October with Strasburg and Max Scherzer available to start 11 postseason games across three rounds, its power pitching would give it an excellent chance against any opponent. Strasburg has always received kid-glove treatment, and now he’s hurt again as he deals with a strained flexor mass in his right elbow. After taking 10 days off, he played catch for five minutes last Saturday; that’s a long way from getting anywhere close to throwing a bullpen session, never mind cranking it up for a postseason start.

It’s difficult to know just how good the Nationals are. They coasted through the regular season in part because of a hale Strasburg (they went 19–5 in his 24 starts) and because they absolutely pummeled intra-division weaklings Atlanta and Philadelphia (they went 29–9 against those two teams and are 58–53 against everyone else). You likely will not be seeing Strasburg and you will definitely not see the Braves and Phillies in the postseason. Washington is a combined 3–8 against the Cubs and Dodgers.