Many contending teams will bolster their lineup over the coming weeks, but the Cincinnati Reds’ big addition was preordained.
Third baseman Noelvi Marte has been suspended all season following a positive test for a banned substance, but his return is on the horizon. He will begin a rehab assignment in Triple-A tomorrow.
News of his 80-game suspension first broke on March 9 and he began serving it on Opening Day. Cincinnati has to play 14 more games before he can rejoin them, so he can make his season debut in St. Louis on June 27.
In his absence, the Reds have gone 32-34, and yesterday’s loss ended a seven-game winning streak. They’re currently in a three-way tie for second place in the National League Central with the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are only a half-game behind the pack.
Though they trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 6.5 games, the division is still in play for all five clubs—as are the NL wild card spots.
Marte was expected to begin the year as their regular third baseman and a middle-of-the-order bat. Two years ago, he was the key prospect the Reds acquired from the Seattle Mariners for starting pitcher Luis Castillo.
He made his MLB debut on August 19, 2023 and batted .316/.356/.456 in 35 games. Prior to spring training—and the PED suspension—MLB.com ranked him the 21st overall prospect in the game.
Marte’s return will start a lineup carousel for the Reds. His natural position is shortstop, but he was never a highly-regarded defender in the minors and Elly De La Cruz has that spot locked up in Cincinnati for the foreseeable future.
Jeimer Candelario will move from third base back to first to accommodate him. That will bump Spencer Steer to left field,
where he played for the first five weeks of the season before Christian Encarnacion-Strand fractured his wrist. Their current left field arrangement is a platoon of two rookies—Jacob Hurtubise and Blake Dunn.
The Reds are averaging 4.36 runs per game, which is slightly ahead of the league average of 4.34. However, they have plenty of room for improvement on offense.
They rank 27th out of 30 teams with a .227 batting average, 25th with a 24.5% strikeout rate, and 20th with a .682 OPS. Their 65 home runs are 18th, but they play in the most homer-friendly ballpark in MLB.
Their 91 wRC+ indicates their overall offense, adjusted for park factors and quality of competition, has been 9% below league-average—the sixth-worst mark in the league.
While Marte will lengthen the lineup, he has questions to answer as well. He’s still just 22 years old and has only 135 plate appearances at the major-league level. On defense, he hasn’t yet demonstrated that he has fully adapted to third base.
He possesses tantalizing power—he popped a 115.6 mph max exit velocity and a strong 107.8 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity—but his 1.9 degree average launch angle reflects his struggle to lift the ball off the ground.
Now, the biggest question of all is how much of his rise through the minors was PED-aided as opposed to natural ability.
Even though the Reds are in second place, they’re still two games below .500. Assuming they can keep their heads above water for two more weeks, whether or not Marte hits the ground running will be a key factor that determines if they buy or sell at the trade deadline.
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