Collingwood are ahead of Carlton in the tender for the services of Dan Houston, in large part because the Magpies are willing to pay a heftier price for the All-Australian defender.
If all goes according to plan, they will land Houston for their future first-round pick, plus the pick 23 they gain from the Suns for John Noble and perhaps smoking Joe Richards (who wants to join Port Adelaide) thrown in as a pair of steak knives.
But to be “in the box seat” for Houston also means boxing yourself in to a deal that carries significant risks for the Magpies, whose apparent post-season strategy, if there is one, is to double down on mature players at the expense of draft picks.
Craig McRae put this short-term mindset on record less than a fortnight ago. “I don’t want picks, I want players,” he said on his weekly segment on SEN. It was a surprising comment from a coach renowned for his development coaching acumen.
That said, if you’ve listened to Collingwood this year, it has been plain that there is a prevailing view that the draft’s gravitational pull can be circumvented and they can remain in premiership contention by a mix of trading, free agency and with less reliance on the draft. The impression given is that the draft will not be their one wood.
They seem to believe they can emulate Geelong, who have hung around the top for longer than the system typically tolerates.
The less optimistic scenario would be to follow Richmond’s path, post-2022, when Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper arrived – at high draft cost – as the cliff face beckoned.
Houston had expressed a preference for Carlton but the Blues, unlike the Pies, have baulked at the draft cost – they don’t wish to forfeit their 2024 first pick.
In some quarters, Carlton’s caution has prompted criticism. It is noteworthy, though, that Carlton – a mature team, but with a younger core than Collingwood – have imposed more restraint on how much access to quality youth they will sacrifice for even an All-Australian half-back.
Houston, in this column’s view, would serve Carlton’s interests better than Collingwood’s, given the state of each club’s list, their age and positional profiles – and what they’re risking.
Captain Darcy Moore leads his Pies on to the field.Credit:Getty Images
Collingwood’s major problem in landing Houston is that they have what seems to be only a fleeting premiership window ahead, due to the large group of veterans who will exit next year and in 2026.
All told, they will enter 2025 with nine players aged 30 plus – and with Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe in their mid-30s.
Darcy Cameron, who peaked in 2024, will turn 30 next year, as will Dan McStay, while Darcy Moore and Jordan De Goey will be 29 early in 2025.
Further, it’s questionable that Houston, 27, fits Collingwood’s most urgent immediate and long-term needs, which are for key position players at each end and prime midfielders to support Nick Daicos.
The decision to pay the (Harry) Perryman six years on more than $850,000 was partly to redress the midfield, but also for Perryman’s flexibility, which is prized in new list manager Justin Leppitsch’s ratings system.
More worrisome for the Magpies, however, is what lies underneath. Outside the phenomenal Daicos, they lack standouts in the under-23 demographic.
Ed Allan has significant upside, Tew Jiath has athletic traits, Harvey Harrison showed talent and there might be others emerging but the lack of high draft picks – the Pies finished top six five times from 2018 to 2023 – has impacted on the young talent at McRae’s disposal.
Collingwood star Nick Daicos evades Dylan Shiel.Credit:Getty Images
Collingwood also have traded away future draft picks no fewer than four times: in 2016 (Adam Treloar), 2019 (Dayne Beams), 2021 (knowing Nick Daicos was coming but they traded away what became pick No.2) and 2024 (Lachie Schultz); they acquired Treloar for two top 10 picks (2015-16) and Beams for a pair of late first-rounders in what was a disastrous deal.
If they trade for Houston, it will be the fifth time in nine years they’ve given up future firsts.
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The Magpies have surmounted these botched trades and lack of draft capital by excellent cheap trades for Howe, Cameron, Bobby Hill, Will Hoskin-Elliott and the mother of all steak knives, Jack Crisp.
They’ve been assisted, too, by the father-son rule (the Daicii and Moore) and academy (Isaac Quaynor) and have a knack for finding players late.
But father-sons or not, the majority of the top dozen players in their 2023 flag were still drafted – the Daicos brothers, De Goey, Moore, Maynard, Pendlebury and Sidebottom.
Kane Cornes has cautioned Collingwood against trading away their draft capital and I’m inclined to concur. Cornes made the obvious comparison with Richmond in 2022 and Hawthorn in 2016, when Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara were acquired, the latter at great draft cost, in what was hailed as a coup.
Seven years later, Mitchell and O’Meara were at their third clubs, with the Hawks paying portions of their contracts, as they changed tack and went into a radical rebuild under Sam Mitchell that delivered this year.
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Can Collingwood avert the cliff face, like Geelong to this point, or will they accelerate over it, in the manner of Thelma and Louise?
The risks of the trade are heightened considering Tasmania will gut the draft soon and the Pies will be bystanders in the top 25 of what is a deep 2024 draft.
Leppitsch, seemingly keen to make a strong first impression as list boss, acknowledged the need to balance Collingwood’s present needs with “hope” for the future in an interview with the AFL website for trade period.
If they win the 2025 premiership with Houston, then their pursuit of him will be vindicated. If they make the grand final, it will be more than defensible.
But if they don’t seriously contend in 2025 and front up without a top-12 draft pick – after sacrificing one this year – the cost will be steep.
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