Ten questions Dons must answer after another finals fail… and who should be on their $2m hit list

Essendon fans don’t need to be reminded how long it’s been since their club last won a final.

It’s been a long two decades for one of the biggest and proudest AFL clubs in the land — and one of the ‘big four’ Victorian powerhouses.

Well, in recent times, they’ve watched Richmond go through a golden period, Collingwood consistently remain in flag contention and Carlton rise from a lengthy rebuild to charge back towards the pointy end of the ladder.

The Bombers have meanwhile languished in AFL purgatory, at times limping into the finals but having no influence, not helped by maybe the biggest controversy in league history in the early 2010s that also doesn’t need reminding.

And though they kickstarted the Brad Scott era on such a positive note — an era that does feel like a genuine turning point for the club amid an overhaul of several other positions of power — this season ended in such brutal fashion.

Sitting fifth after Round 17 and on track to feature in September, Essendon would drop five of its last seven games — including losses to GWS and Collingwood by a combined 196 points in the last two rounds — while the two narrow wins during that span came against bottom-two sides North Melbourne and West Coast.

It’s clear that, despite promise, the Bombers still have a ways to go before they shoot back up the ladder and contend again.

Scott himself was brutally honest about the task ahead after the team’s Round 24 loss to the Magpies, forecasting “extraordinary measures” to improve “right across the board” including the playing list and footy department.

Veteran journalist Caroline Wilson has already flagged “big changes”, with the departure of experienced assistant and current VFL coach Leigh Tudor the first domino to fall.

Current head of performance Dan McPherson is the favourite to replace outgoing footy boss Josh Mahoney, while long-time list manager Adrian Dodoro will remain in his position for 2024.

So what other moves can be made? And how do Essendon move closer towards getting back to being one of the competition heavyweights under Scott’s lead?

There needs to be a full-scale review of every aspect of the club to identity where things went wrong – and more specifically, where they need to improve.

You can take the glass half full or glass half empty approach to Essendon’s 2023 season, and some may be wondering why the club fell away so badly late in the piece.

But the view that the Bombers were a genuine finals caliber side in the first half of the year may have been a misnomer, with the club still statistically among the worst teams in contest and defence.

In stats of the ‘core four’ areas shown on Fox Footy’s TheFirst Crack, while the Bombers ranked fifth in the competition in ball movement, they sat 15th in defending ball movement, 16th in clearance differential and 16th in post-clearance contested possession differential.

Put simply, they weren’t hard enough to play against, but were damaging themselves with ball in hand.

Combine the above numbers and Essendon ranked just 16th overall in the ‘core four’ stats, with only North Melbourne and West Coast rated worse.

Digging deeper into their defence, they only slightly improved from their bottom four 2022 season under Ben Rutten — that yielded four fewer wins — jumping from 16th to 15th in points against, 17th to 15th in defensive ball movement and 18th to 17th in pressure.

The bottom-two pressure rating is proof that, while your mind immediately goes specifically to the back six when it comes to defence, so much is predicated on intent and effort all over the ground.

Of course, it didn’t help that Jordan Ridley – arguably their most important defender – missed a key chunk of the back end of the season to leave a void to an already undersized and undermanned back group.

And as their lowly-ranked contest and clearance numbers suggest, their shaky defence was too often put under too much pressure.

North Melbourne legend David King on TheFirst Crack said he was “concerned” about their defensive system, labelling it a “massive problem” the Bombers must correct.

“Without the footy they’re 15th again. This is strategy,” the dual premiership Kangaroo said.

“I won’t hear the wash and the spin that others want to go with, because it was the same when they were sitting fifth on the table: Really good with the ball, but ordinary without it.

“You can’t be ordinary without it and expect to be a finals team and pushing up the ladder. If that stays the same next year, it’ll be another wasted 12 months like this was.”

THE SCOTT EFFECT

Scott candidly revealed in his final presser of the year that the bar would be raised this summer in his bid to cultivate a harder-working culture.

“This is the first opportunity I’ve got to drive an off-season … as to what that looks like and the expectations that we have, because the observations of the last nine to 12 months is nowhere near where it needs to be. So we’ll get that right,” the Bombers coach said.

And as put by St Kilda champion Nick Dal Santo on Fox Footy Live, “the fear of god should be put through that group.”

While the Bombers coach has clearly already had a profound impact on the group, he’ll now embark on his first full off-season since taking over the reins late last year.

Not only does that give him a greater opportunity to mould the list and make it more his (though more on that later), but perhaps even more importantly, fully stamp his discipline on the environment.

Improving defensively will clearly be a major focus, even though it already was, according to Zach Merrett, with the skipper revealing 90 per cent of the club’s focus last off-season was on defence.

It’s therefore encouraging to think how it could further develop with even more time and energy.

One of the most respected and hard taskmasters in football, the Bombers should otherwise take natural steps forward under Scott’s guidance, with the reinforcement and tightening of structures, and, as he said himself, clearer expectations of the level required to be an elite team.

It’s something Scott, a two-time premiership player under Leigh Matthews at Brisbane during one of the most dominant eras from a side in VFL/AFL history, knows a thing or two about.

Plus don’t forget, this is a coach who in the 2010s took a North Melbourne side that were no world beaters to two preliminary finals.

Caroline Wilson provided further insights into how “shocked” Scott was by the standards when he first arrived at Tullamarine, suggesting “there will be no footy trip” this off-season.

Wilson said the club’s leaders will also drive harder standards and that the likes of Jake Stringer, who’s had a couple of down seasons due to injury and form issues, would be challenged to get back to his best.

Beyond Stringer, Sam Draper should be challenged to become a genuinely elite ruckman of the competition. Does he have that in him, or is he just a glorified cult hero?

Meanwhile, can Andy McGrath follow Merrett’s lead and become a more robust leader? And can he get to an All-Australian caliber level he once promised as a No. 1 draft pick?

McGrath aside, who else can emerge as a strong leader?

Can Jordan Ridley get close to the level of the likes of Tom Stewart and James Sicily?

Can Jye Caldwell live up to his potential after costing the Bombers Pick 29 in a trade?

Granted his year was disrupted by injury, but can Peter Wright prove 2022 was no flash in the pan?

Is Dylan Shiel prepared to dig in and remain a consistent servant in his later years and provide invaluable leadership? Much like Travis Boak has for Port Adelaide.

Is Darcy Parish capable of contending for a Brownlow?

Is Ben Hobbs ready to stand up as a mainstay midfielder?

And can 2020 first-round draftees Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid become reliable senior players?

 

There are all the type of questions the Bombers should be asking if they want to get to another level, though it doesn’t need to necessarily happen overnight.

Champion teams make champion players, so getting complete buy in and even contributions towards a common goal is key. Players doing things for each other, not just themselves.

Merrett is living proof of how personal transformation and making sacrifices can have such a positive impact on the team, with the first-year captain already one of the most respected leaders in the game.

Above all, the Bombers must strive to play a nastier brand with more mongrel, with dual All-Australian Jonathan Brown urging players to channel the same attitude Scott showed as a player, claiming Bombers teams over the past two decades “don’t really put the fear of god into you.”

It echoed Dal Santo’s sentiment on Fox Footy Live, with the Saints great saying: “They’ll have a period of time off, then they’ve got to get to work.

“We remember Brad Scott as a player, I’ve worked with him for three years (at North Melbourne) as (my) senior coach and I know what he stands for.

“He’s going to get his first opportunity in the off-season and his first opportunity in a full pre-season with the list he can get changed in a short period of time.

“Come ready to play day one of pre-season.”

 

A coach and team is ultimately only as good as its list, and as already flagged, Scott and his lieutenants now have more time to develop it.

Essendon has already gotten to work as the first club to announce its delistings – parting ways with Alastair Lord, Rhett Montgomerie and Cian McBride, who all combined for just one senior game in something of a poor reflection of the club’s player development at the lower level.

James Stewart is also set to be let go despite being contracted for next year.

It’s worth noting the Bombers went into 2023 with one of the youngest and least experienced lists in the competition in the profile of a rebuilding side, which technically, they are.

They had the second-youngest list in the competition — younger than both North Melbourne and West Coast — and fourth-least experienced list in terms of games played.

From that regard, expectations always needed to be tempered this year, with the departures of Michael Hurley, Devon Smith, Marty Gleeson, Cale Hooker and David Zaharakis over the last two years leaving a fair void of experience, with Andrew Phillips and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti now following.

It leaves the Bombers with only three players — Merrett, Shiel and Dyson Heppell — with 200-plus games experience including only eight more players with 100-plus games experience.

As such, Essendon doesn’t have that much scope with what it can do as far as potentially shopping senior players with currency — at least those it’d be willing to, perhaps outside Shiel — while it’d be wise to retain the bulk of its draft hand — currently owning picks 8, 27, 46 and 67.

And ultimately, any big moves should largely be made with a long-term perspective to help the club win its next premiership, which won’t be in 2024.

In saying that, the Bombers do reportedly have $2 million in cap space and should always be striving to bring in talent and get better, though reports have stated the club isn’t keen to overspend or overpay players, suggesting it’s happy to play the long game.

In terms of targets, North Melbourne key defender Ben McKay would be the dream addition given he’d cost nothing as a free agent, fits the Bombers’ age profile at 25 and would bolster them and add size to an area of the ground they need it most.

But despite it once appearing he was destined to don the sash in 2024, McKay is also being courted by the Power, Swans and Hawks, with Sydney reportedly emerging as the favourite.

If McKay goes elsewhere, the Bombers could make a play for other key backs such as Esava Ratugolea, Dougal Howard or Tom Doedee or even target a cheaper option like Adam Tomlinson, Caleb Marchbank, Tom Clurey, Tom Highmore or Lewis Melican.

There’s an ever greater urgency for the Bombers to bring in a defender given breakout gun Brandon Zerk-Thatcher seems likely to request a trade to Port Adelaide.

Any good defence is built around the unification of a group of six or seven players developing as a tight-knit unit over 50 to 100 games, so Zerk-Thatcher’s likely departure is a big blow in that regard.

Beyond him, Parish, Nick Bryan, who’s been linked to West Coast, Harrison Jones, Jye Menzie and Massimo D’Ambrosio are other key names still without deals for 2024.

Parish’s signature has however reportedly been secured despite some haggling, with an announcement imminent in a big win given how much the club’s midfield has struggled, while he led the Bombers in contested possessions (14 per game) and clearances (7.7) in 2023.

You feel like the Bombers likely would’ve gone backwards without Parish, even though Hawthorn bizarrely proved this year you can shed experienced midfielders and still improve in that area of the ground with more youth.

Essendon has also been linked to controversial Kangaroo Tarryn Thomas, 23, as a player who could add more class, though he’s under contract and you sense North wouldn’t give him away lightly.

St Kilda free agent Jade Gresham is another name the Bombers have interest in, and given his status, would cost nothing from a trade standpoint. There are question marks if he’s worth the potential high price tag, but if you could get the 26-year old cheap, sure?

Could the Bombers also get involved in the potential Bailey Smith sweepstakes in a bid to further bolster their mids? The 22-year old would fit their age demographic, but it seems he’s unavailable … for now.

There’s frankly no other real quick fix to the club’s woes in the middle of the ground nor should it want one.

The focus should be developing the likes of Hobbs, Perkins, Caldwell, and Elijah Tsatas for long-term gain as key members of their next flag tilt, while the 192cm powerful and dynamic Nate Caddy could be the ideal target with Pick 8 to bring through with such names.

Plus Will Setterfield was already brought in to provide a more experienced body in the midfield and some depth in that area.

Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley said the Bombers must continue to add bigger bodies to their list.

“I think Essendon have recruited for speed for a long time and they’ve recruited for transition, which is great. But you still need bigger-bodied players,” Buckley told Fox Footy’s On The Couch.

“I think Hobbs and Perkins have been a change in that, (Jayden) Laverde is a big-bodied defender but he’s undersized.

“The other thing that’s really alarming for them is they’ve been the second-worst offence in the back-half of this year. That’s been a part that, at least when their defence has been great, they’ve done well.”

It’s next year when the Bombers can really go shopping to bolster their forward stocks, when the likes of Gold Coast’s Ben King, Western Bulldogs pair Aaron Naughton and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Port Adelaide’s Todd Marshall all come out of contract.

Meanwhile, North Melbourne’s Cam Zurhaar, who the club has previously been linked to, becomes a free agent at the end of the 2024 campaign.

From that standpoint, forward thinking is important, too, with the likes of Nic Martin, McGrath, Perkins, Tsatas, Stringer, Caldwell, Sam Durham and Setterfield all uncontracted beyond 2024.

With all that mind, there’s clearly plenty of work ahead for the Bombers, and that’s largely just over the course of the next several months.

Ultimately, as satisfying as it’ll be for supporters, ending the dreaded drought without a finals win shouldn’t really be the main goal for this club.

It should be about gearing everything towards the future, with hopes of establishing an environment, culture and list that will lead it to premiership No. 17, and beyond.

On Scott’s watch, the club will be doing everything in it’s power — and leaving no stone unturned — to try and make that happen.

Bombers fans will just need to remain a little more patient for now.