Cincinnati’s starting quarterback says he was playing his best football ever when he sustained a wrist injury last year, but he should be right back there in the aftermath.

The moment came for the Cincinnati Bengals’ coaches at the beginning of August. The Joe Burrow they knew, the one who led their franchise out of the woods, and onto the NFL’s biggest stages for the first time in three decades, was back. And in complete and total command.

Yes, it had to do with his health, as he returns from another injury, this time a torn wrist ligament. But that wasn’t really it. It was how this quarterbacking prodigy—with a scheme decoder in his head—was returning to his element and reaching a new level in the part of the game he’s long seemed to have mastered.

He was manipulating his protection. He was moving skill guys on his own. He was using the pieces to figure out what the defense was doing.

The incredibly smart QB showed he’s getting even smarter. Get past that and, sure, the injuries he’s sustained come into focus. That he could physically cash the checks his mind was writing, as he processed what was around him, was, indeed, a good sign that he was getting back to being himself. And the fact that all the time he spent unable to do this didn’t go to waste was cool, too—clearly, he used it wisely.

But in the end, the headline for those watching was how Burrow, once again, got tougher to defend in a way that wasn’t going to be readily apparent to the crowds of fans gathered for a training camp workout.

“I had a lot of time coming back to think about checks against certain defenses that I like,” Burrow said, in a quiet moment, a couple of days later. “That’s been a big emphasis for me over the last month and a half. I’m seeing things really well right now. The throwing part is getting better and better, each day the more reps that I get. My arm is really strong down the field right now, which I’m really happy with.

“That was the one thing I was worried about with this injury. I would say it’s as strong as it’s been in that department.”

Soon enough, he and the Bengals trust, he’ll show all of this to the rest of us.

It’s why, when we publish our 2024 staff predictions for the site later this week, I’ll have Cincinnati going to the Super Bowl—and Joe Burrow to be the NFL’s MVP.

The 27-year-old’s been through a lot as a pro. The ACL tear as a rookie, and the rehab going into the Super Bowl year. The appendicitis going into 2022. Last year, the calf injury, and then a scary wrist injury from which he’s finally close to 100% recovered. Yet, with all of that change, one thing hasn’t shifted much. Burrow has always been focused on getting better. It’s why he was at his best before he got hurt last year.

It’s also why, as I see it, he has the best shot of any quarterback at challenging three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes to be the game’s MVP over the next five months.

The first key to knowing where Burrow is now is to remember where he was when his wrist popped on Nov. 16, 2023.

That Thursday night, the Bengals were moving the ball consistently on what might’ve been the best defense in the NFL, on the road in Baltimore. Burrow’s last possession covered 82 yards in 12 plays. His last throw was a four-yard touchdown to Joe Mixon that put Cincinnati up 10–7 against the AFC’s eventual top seed.

And while having his wrist go the way it did—he immediately knew it was bad, as athletes usually do in these situations—would’ve been bad under any circumstance, the real kick in the you-know-where for Burrow came in that he’d just started to feel like himself again after fighting a calf injury for much of the summer, and having it linger a bit into the fall.

“I think that’s the best I’ve played in my career, those last couple games,” he says. “I feel like I was really hitting my stride, which is the most disappointing part. … I was throwing on the run and making plays the best I have in my career, which was really a big emphasis going into last year, just making more plays. The calf hindered me early in the year, so I wasn’t able to show it. Those last couple games, I was able to show what I had been working on all offseason. That felt great.”

It wasn’t just in the Ravens game, either.

It was also a near-perfect afternoon against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 8—Burrow threw for 283 yards, three touchdowns and a 134.8 rating on 28-of-32 passing in a 31–17 win. He threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns in a 24–18 win over the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen in Week 9. And he threw for 347 yards in a 30–27 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 10.