Into the morass of gossip and conjecture, we will bring sanity, with the relaunch of Smart Signings, our dissection of where clubs are weak, what they need to improve and where they might find it. Expect stats, profiles and insights, with options that are available and realistic. Don’t expect rumours.
It’s a hard life being a coach. Just when you think you’ve cracked it, you have to start all over again.
Just ask Adam O’Brien. The Knights boss might have been sacked if his side had lost to the Bulldogs at the start of July, but instead thrashed them 66-0, then went on a winning run that ended with a defeat in the second week of the finals.
From a bloke who could have lost his job with little fanfare, he was extended for another year and the toast of the town.
O’Brien knows that such vicissitudes are the lot of an NRL coach. He – and his backroom staff, which includes serial Super League winner Brian McDermott – know that triumph and disaster are imposters to be treated equally.
When the Knights were doing badly, they weren’t as bad as they looked. Ditto when they were doing well, they’ll have known that there was an element of the hot streak about it.
In 2024, differentiating the signal and the noise will lie at the heart of any success they have, so it’s worth going into what worked and what didn’t.
Firstly and most obviously, Kalyn Ponga’s return to form helped. Playing him at fullback helped too, which does at least fall slightly on the coach who either chose to shift him or acceded to the demands of his star by letting him cosplay as a five eighth, but either way, that has now been sorted.
Having such a good 1 unlocked both edges, which added vital points to a side that was already good at getting into attacking positions.
Their efficiency in good ball – i.e. how often they turned visits to the 20m zone into points – was generally pretty good throughout 2023, but suddenly, they were a huge threat from deep as well.
Sometimes, too, it just clicks – and that matters a lot more when you’re fundamentally an expansive attacking team, as the Knights are.
Completion rates are generally nonsense as long as you can hit a floor of around 73%, but for the horror run of two wins from nine prior to that Bulldogs win, Newcastle were beneath 67% in six of them.
In the other three, they won twice and lost the other, away in Brisbane, on the last play of the game. In the ten game winning streak that follows, they dipped below the magic 73% just once.
One can look at Souths, Cronulla or Manly – three other teams that back their wide men to get it done – and see similar patterns.
This cohesion matters for the Knights because it speaks to problems they might face in 2024 and 2025.
Their departures this year are Dom Young from a wing and Lachlan Fitzgibbon from the back row, and a few depth options like Kurt Mann, Lachlan Miller and Fa’amanu Brown.
Their arrivals do cover the immediate future: Will Pryce is a five eighth/fullback, Jack Cogger is a half, Tom Jenkins challenges on a wing, Kai Pearce-Paul slots straight in where Fitzgibbon was and Jed Cartwright plugs more backrow options.
It’s a bit more changeover than might be ideal, but it’s not the end of the world either. Where things get interesting is 2025.
Their November 1 crew is Bradman Best, Dane Gagai and Enari Tuala – so all their centres – plus Brodie Jones, another backrower, as well as two props in Jacob Saifiti and Mat Croker and a five eighth, Tyson Gamble.
Newcastle were about the fitth or sixth best team in the NRL in 2023, and sustainably so, with stats that backed up their league position.
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